The Fallacy of Believing Statistics: How to Think for Yourself.
Don’t believe everything you read on the internet. Big surprise there. Read the stuff on the internet. But draw your own conclusions. Think for yourself.
Statistics are often used to back up an argument or point of view. However, we must be careful when consuming data and statistics. It is all too easy to believe something just because it is presented as fact, without looking into the source of the information. In this article, we will discuss the fallacy of believing statistics- how to think for yourself and not be swayed by numbers alone. We will look at Twyman’s Law, which states that “the more notable the data, the less trustworthy…the more boring the data is, the more trustworthy.” So how do we consume data effectively? And how can we learn to think for ourselves?
You are worthy of drawing your own conclusions. Many “experts” today have hidden agendas. Realizing that brings you one step closer to reading with the intent of thinking for yourself. Statistics and data are often used to try and sway you into believing something. For example, statistics may be presented in a way that tries to convince you that global warming was not brought on by humans. The problem with this is that many people will look at the numbers and believe it because they want to believe it- they don’t want their behavior to be the cause of disastrous effects. The opposite argument (humans do not cause global warming) applies as well. Correlation does not equal causation.
Here are some ways to read with caution and draw your own conclusions.
- Look at the source of the information. Who is providing it? What is their agenda? There is always a hidden agenda. We live in a highly incentivized environment. Behaviors exist for one reason- it is profitable to behave in such a manner.
- Check to see if the statistics are from a credible source. Even “credible” sources have agendas.
- Are there other factors involved that may be influencing the data?
- Argue the counterpoint. Why would someone be for or against the argument?
- Correlation does not equal causation. Just because two things happen together, doesn’t mean that one caused the other.
- Understand that there’s an inherent bias in every media you consume. Use the information you’ve gained from that as a basis upon which you pile on further research or investigation.
Consuming media today requires individual and independent thought. Don’t take the author’s word for anything they tell you. Use their message as a discussion point and draw your own conclusions.
